Douglas Elliman report: sales falling, prices rising in Miami’s housing markets

by James McClister

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Douglas Elliman released its Q4 report for the Greater Miami real estate market today, and the numbers reaffirm trends we saw throughout 2016 – housing affordability is falling along with demand. However, at least on the single-family side of the market, sales benefited from the November and December bump that came as a result of rising interest rates and the uncertainty surrounding a Trump presidency.

The single-family side

Median single-family sales prices were up year-over-year in all but four of the Miami/Miami Beach/Boca Raton-area markets that Douglas Elliman analyzed. The widespread appreciation gives the impression of strong buyer interest, as do the sales increases in late 2016; however, a look at average days on market (DOM) show a stark decline in demand. In several markets, the time a listing was sitting on market more than doubled from Q4 2015 to Q4 2016. Average DOM increased in 10 of the 12 markets analyzed, and only decreased in one – as our below table shows, Boca Raton was the outlier:

Single-Family Prices and Sales

Single Family Prices and Sales Median Sales Price Median Sales Price YoY Change Sales Sales YoY
Boca Raton $396,938 1.80% 542 -5.10%
Coconut Grove $1,007,500 4.90% 18 4.90%
Coral Gables $800,000 -9.90% 125 40.40%
Downtown $316,000 14.90% 1,628 0.30%
Key Biscayne $2,301,875 -22% 10 -33.30%
Miami Beach $1,550,000 -3.40% 75 6.30%
Miami Beach Islands $3,000,000 3.40% 11 83.30%
Miami Proper $335,000 3.90% 1,897 1.10%
Palmetto Bay $520,000 7.30% 59 -4.80%
Pinecrest $1,020,000 -11.90% 40 0.00%
South Miami $589,000 7.50% 18 -21.70%
Surfside $720,000 2.10% 6 -14.30%

Single-Family DOM

Single Family Days on Market DOM Q4 2016 DOM Q4 2015
Boca Raton 76 76
Coconut Grove 152 75
Coral Gables 94 49
Downtown 60 62
Key Biscayne 125 48
Miami Beach 111 55
Miami Beach Islands 126 31
Miami Proper 64 62
Palmetto Bay 67 62
Pinecrest 109 63
South Miami 73 41
Surfside 84 74

The condo side

Greater Miami's condo market did not see a November/December sales bump. Instead, the market continued running on dynamics that have governed it now for more than a year – prices continued taking huge, appreciative strides, while sales and demand plummeted. Sunny Isles, for instance, prices rose more than 17 percent, despite sales falling almost 19 percent; in the Downtown market,  prices were up 18.9 percent ,and sales were down 14.2 percent; and in Miami Beach, average DOM nearly tripled, jumping 79 days from 49 to 127.

The most troubling part of Douglas Elliman's report is that while all of that is happening, area developers continue to stockpile condo units. Miami's condo inventory is rose 18 percent year-over-year to a 13.2-month supply, and in Miami Beach, after increasing by more than 50 percent from Q4 2015, condo supply is up to more than two year's worth of inventory.

Condo Prices and Sales

Condo Sales and Prices Median Sales Price Median Sales Price YoY Change Closed Sales Closed Sales YoY
Aventura $287,500 -8.70% 206 -15.20%
Bal Harbour $857,500 18.30% 16 -54.30%
Bay Harbor Islands $260,000 4% 14 -33.30%
Boca Raton $205,009 13.90% 588 6.30%
Brickell $400,000 5.30% 149 -33.50%
Coconut Grove $528,850 -15.40% 26 -27.80%
Coral Gables $344,000 6.50% 60 -3.20%
Downtown $195,000 18.90% 1,187 -14.20%
Fisher Island $10,500,000 223.10% 2 0%
Key Biscayne $802,500 -17.30% 30 -36.20%
Miami Beach $359,500 8.90% 588 -23.10%
Miami Proper $224,500 4.40% 1,645 -26.10%
Mid-Beach $420,900 -9.20% 44 -52.20%
North Bay Village $250,000 15.20% 37 12.10%
North Beach $298,600 24.90% 59 -27.20%
South Beach $338,000 7.40% 220 -4.30%
Sunny Isles $400,000 17.40% 117 -18.80%
Surfside $525,000 32.90% 9 -57.10%

Condo DOM

Condo Days on Market DOM Q4 2016 DOM Q4 2015
Aventura 116 50
Bal Harbour 131 75
Bay Harbor Islands 105 53
Boca Raton 72 72
Brickell 160 52
Coconut Grove 102 69
Coral Gables 80 43
Downtown 70 54
Fisher Island 400 53
Key Biscayne 136 60
Miami Beach 127 49
Miami Proper 85 53
Mid-Beach 122 57
North Bay Village 108 47
North Beach 107 47
South Beach 127 42
Sunny Isles 146 44
Surfside 161 56
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  • ROBERTO TOURON says:

    I’m a Realtor : Household Inventory for workers is poor and few quality for the strong regulation of the Banks. the present administration could alleviate some and authorize to the government agencies of housing to create programs that facilitate the movement of the industry through a moratorium to those who made bankruptcy when the market fell in 2006 and increasing the down payment.
    Is a suggestion although you know more than I