Douglas Elliman released its Q4 report for the Greater Miami real estate market today, and the numbers reaffirm trends we saw throughout 2016 – housing affordability is falling along with demand. However, at least on the single-family side of the market, sales benefited from the November and December bump that came as a result of rising interest rates and the uncertainty surrounding a Trump presidency.
The single-family side
Median single-family sales prices were up year-over-year in all but four of the Miami/Miami Beach/Boca Raton-area markets that Douglas Elliman analyzed. The widespread appreciation gives the impression of strong buyer interest, as do the sales increases in late 2016; however, a look at average days on market (DOM) show a stark decline in demand. In several markets, the time a listing was sitting on market more than doubled from Q4 2015 to Q4 2016. Average DOM increased in 10 of the 12 markets analyzed, and only decreased in one – as our below table shows, Boca Raton was the outlier:
Single-Family Prices and Sales
| Single Family Prices and Sales | Median Sales Price | Median Sales Price YoY Change | Sales | Sales YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Raton | $396,938 | 1.80% | 542 | -5.10% |
| Coconut Grove | $1,007,500 | 4.90% | 18 | 4.90% |
| Coral Gables | $800,000 | -9.90% | 125 | 40.40% |
| Downtown | $316,000 | 14.90% | 1,628 | 0.30% |
| Key Biscayne | $2,301,875 | -22% | 10 | -33.30% |
| Miami Beach | $1,550,000 | -3.40% | 75 | 6.30% |
| Miami Beach Islands | $3,000,000 | 3.40% | 11 | 83.30% |
| Miami Proper | $335,000 | 3.90% | 1,897 | 1.10% |
| Palmetto Bay | $520,000 | 7.30% | 59 | -4.80% |
| Pinecrest | $1,020,000 | -11.90% | 40 | 0.00% |
| South Miami | $589,000 | 7.50% | 18 | -21.70% |
| Surfside | $720,000 | 2.10% | 6 | -14.30% |
Single-Family DOM
| Single Family Days on Market | DOM Q4 2016 | DOM Q4 2015 |
| Boca Raton | 76 | 76 |
| Coconut Grove | 152 | 75 |
| Coral Gables | 94 | 49 |
| Downtown | 60 | 62 |
| Key Biscayne | 125 | 48 |
| Miami Beach | 111 | 55 |
| Miami Beach Islands | 126 | 31 |
| Miami Proper | 64 | 62 |
| Palmetto Bay | 67 | 62 |
| Pinecrest | 109 | 63 |
| South Miami | 73 | 41 |
| Surfside | 84 | 74 |
The condo side
Greater Miami’s condo market did not see a November/December sales bump. Instead, the market continued running on dynamics that have governed it now for more than a year – prices continued taking huge, appreciative strides, while sales and demand plummeted. Sunny Isles, for instance, prices rose more than 17 percent, despite sales falling almost 19 percent; in the Downtown market, prices were up 18.9 percent ,and sales were down 14.2 percent; and in Miami Beach, average DOM nearly tripled, jumping 79 days from 49 to 127.
The most troubling part of Douglas Elliman’s report is that while all of that is happening, area developers continue to stockpile condo units. Miami’s condo inventory is rose 18 percent year-over-year to a 13.2-month supply, and in Miami Beach, after increasing by more than 50 percent from Q4 2015, condo supply is up to more than two year’s worth of inventory.
Condo Prices and Sales
| Condo Sales and Prices | Median Sales Price | Median Sales Price YoY Change | Closed Sales | Closed Sales YoY |
| Aventura | $287,500 | -8.70% | 206 | -15.20% |
| Bal Harbour | $857,500 | 18.30% | 16 | -54.30% |
| Bay Harbor Islands | $260,000 | 4% | 14 | -33.30% |
| Boca Raton | $205,009 | 13.90% | 588 | 6.30% |
| Brickell | $400,000 | 5.30% | 149 | -33.50% |
| Coconut Grove | $528,850 | -15.40% | 26 | -27.80% |
| Coral Gables | $344,000 | 6.50% | 60 | -3.20% |
| Downtown | $195,000 | 18.90% | 1,187 | -14.20% |
| Fisher Island | $10,500,000 | 223.10% | 2 | 0% |
| Key Biscayne | $802,500 | -17.30% | 30 | -36.20% |
| Miami Beach | $359,500 | 8.90% | 588 | -23.10% |
| Miami Proper | $224,500 | 4.40% | 1,645 | -26.10% |
| Mid-Beach | $420,900 | -9.20% | 44 | -52.20% |
| North Bay Village | $250,000 | 15.20% | 37 | 12.10% |
| North Beach | $298,600 | 24.90% | 59 | -27.20% |
| South Beach | $338,000 | 7.40% | 220 | -4.30% |
| Sunny Isles | $400,000 | 17.40% | 117 | -18.80% |
| Surfside | $525,000 | 32.90% | 9 | -57.10% |
Condo DOM
| Condo Days on Market | DOM Q4 2016 | DOM Q4 2015 |
| Aventura | 116 | 50 |
| Bal Harbour | 131 | 75 |
| Bay Harbor Islands | 105 | 53 |
| Boca Raton | 72 | 72 |
| Brickell | 160 | 52 |
| Coconut Grove | 102 | 69 |
| Coral Gables | 80 | 43 |
| Downtown | 70 | 54 |
| Fisher Island | 400 | 53 |
| Key Biscayne | 136 | 60 |
| Miami Beach | 127 | 49 |
| Miami Proper | 85 | 53 |
| Mid-Beach | 122 | 57 |
| North Bay Village | 108 | 47 |
| North Beach | 107 | 47 |
| South Beach | 127 | 42 |
| Sunny Isles | 146 | 44 |
| Surfside | 161 | 56 |
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