In almost every way you cut Miami’s real estate market, prices were up and sales were down in October, according to a new report from the Miami Association of Realtors and the local MLS.

On the single-family side of the market, sales were down 12.9 percent year-over-year, while median price jumped 17 percent from $265,000 to $310,000. Things were similar in the condo market, where prices increased 7 percent – despite a huge 30-percent drop in sales.

The one area of the market showing signs of strength is in single-family homes priced between $300,000 and $600,000, where sales were up 18.9 percent from last October.

Housing in Miami – a weak strength

In a statement accompanying the report, Mark Sadek, MIAMI’s 2016 chairman of the board, used the positive mid-market performance as evidence of Miami’s strength.

“Miami’s evolution into a world-class global city is attracting domestic homebuyers from throughout the United States,” Sadek said. “The middle of our market continues to see growing demand. Homebuyers want to live in a young global city with top-flight art, culture, entertainment and education.”

However, home sales in the middle section of the Greater Miami’s single-family market represent less than 20 percent of total residential sales. And in fact, the market declined by nearly 200 more sales than the 377 that took place overall in that $300,000 to $600,000 range.

But falling sales are not necessarily the biggest threat facing Greater Miami. After two years of record sales, a decline is not entirely shocking. But its inventory is.

Miami’s real problem

At a cursory glance, things would seem to be okay as far as single-family housing stock goes, given that inventory in October was at a very normal 6-months supply. But if you tier the market, you see that the number of available homes priced below $300,000 has dropped by just over 28 percent since last October. In a city largely considered overvalued, such a huge drop in affordable housing is a cause for concern.

Things are even more troubling in the city’s condo market, where overall inventory is now at a 12.6-months supply – well over the six- to nine-months supply that tends to mark a balanced market. And in some Greater Miami neighborhoods, condo inventory exceeds a 50-months supply.

A glut of condos is a problem because over the next several years, thousands of new condo units are slated to hit the market. And with demand falling and prices still increasing, the question becomes: who, if anybody, will buy them?