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A professional’s perspective: Is Miami headed toward another condo glut?

by Wendy Forsythe

Wendy F

Wendy Forsythe is an executive vice president and the head of global operations for Carrington Real Estate Services

The condo market in Miami has come a long way since the 2008 housing crisis. At that time, roughly 30,000 condos stood empty due to over-development and a crashing economy. Since then, the market has steadily improved and was even booming at this time last year. Recently, however, sales have significantly begun to slow down.

According to the Miami Association of Realtors, this past April, closed sales of townhouses and condos declined 12.1 percent year over year in Miami-Dade County. At the same time, fewer buyers paid in cash (a 16.8 percent decline), and the inventory of active listings increased 15.9 percent. Overall inventory is up to an 11-month supply, a 22.2 percent increase, and more developments continue to come online.

In fact, the massive 5.4 million-square-foot Brickell City Centre development has two high-rise condo towers as part of its mixed-use plan: the 390-unit Reach, which opened this past April, and Rise, which is slated to open this summer with an additional 390 units. By some estimates, more 7,300 condominium units are currently in the works, which is making many in the real estate industry worry that Miami’s condo market could be heading toward trouble.

While there is some cause for concern, a lot has changed since 2008, and many developers have learned from the experiences of the housing crisis. Although there is a significant amount of new condo development set to come online in the next few years, developers this time around are being more cautious and getting more substantial commitments from buyers before building – some asking for as much as 50 percent upfront. In addition, some developers are ready to halt or cancel plans if the market continues to soften.

A number of other factors are also tempering concerns, and foremost among them is: Miami continues to enjoy steady price appreciation. According to the Miami Association of Realtors, the median sale price of townhouses and condos in Miami-Dade County this past April was $215,000, an 8 percent year over year increase. The average sale price also increased 4.4 percent this past April, to $428,650. The median time to contract is down to 66 days from 77 days in April 2015, a 14.3 percent decrease, and the median time to sale is also down 11.3 percent in the same timeframe. Short sales are down 41.9 percent from April 2015, and foreclosure and REO sales are down 50.6 percent. In addition, demand for beachfront and luxury properties remains solid.

Although Miami remains an attractive location in the real estate market, with almost 11 months of condo supply on hand as of this past April, more absorption should take place before development gets out of hand.


Wendy Forsythe is an executive vice president and the head of global operations for Carrington Real Estate Services and has been with the brokerage for nearly five years. Prior to her current position, Forsythe managed network services for Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate, spent seven years heading sales services for Royal LePage Real Estate Services, and owned and operated Realty World Elite Realty.

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