In true Miami fashion, despite a double-digit drop in sales across both property types (single-family homes and condominiums) home price growth continues to amaze.

The city’s single-family market – a weaker counterpart to condos – has been slowing for months and it was no different in January, as sales tumbled 14.4 percent year-over-year, the Miami Association of Realtors reported (though, researchers added the number of sales, at 824, was still within historical norms).

However, despite the drop, single-family prices ratcheted up 13.7 percent from the same time last year, pushing the median sales price from $237,500 to $270,000.

Because of the prices running counter to sales, it’s difficult to measure single-family demand in Miami, but the cards are stacked in favor of it declining.

Firstly, from Jan. 2015 to Jan. 2016, the median number of days single-family listings remained on market was jumped 21 days to 72. Some might attribute this to closing delays from TRID, but it’s unreasonable to think the new disclosure rules could be responsible for a 20-plus day jump.

What might explain Miami’s considerable single-family price jump is the city’s inventory, which continues to dwindle. At the beginning of the year, inventory for the property type was at 5.5-month supply – down 3.9 percent from 12 months prior.

Condos – Even More Inventory in January

Condos in Miami have been a sight to watch as of late, as price appreciation seems untouchable even amidst slowing sales and a growing stockpile of available units.

The association reported that in January, the median sales price for condos in the city increased 8.8 percent year-over-year from $188,500 to $205,000 – marking the first time the median price has broken the $200,000 barrier. In 55 of the last 56 months, prices for existing condos have risen.

But those prices aren’t being driven by any measurable demand.

Condo inventory in January increased a whopping 16.8 percent to a 10.2-month supply – well above the 6- to 9-month supply the association says is ideal for a “balanced market – while sales of the property type dropped 10 percent.

It’s unclear, exactly, what is driving such strong price appreciation, but as more inventory floods the market – as it’s expected to – and as the Treasury Department increases its scrutiny on luxury cash sales, the pace should begin to slow.

Attitudes Remain Positive

There are a few indicators – like falling single-family inventory and sales, and condo prices not matching up quite right with demand – that suggest Miami’s market maybe be in for a few bumps in the near future, but the heads at the association are remaining positive.

“On the heels of a historic 2015 that saw Miami real estate register its most-ever single-family home sales and its third-most total residential transactions, Miami properties remain in high demand,” said Mark Sadek, a Coral Springs Realtor and the 2016 MIAMI chairman of the board. “Properties are selling for higher prices and near asking. While total residential sales decreased in January, single-family home and condominium sales remain consistent with historic averages.”

Teresa King Kinney, the association’s chief executive, acknowledged the falling sales, but said simply that “it is not sustainable to set a new all-time sales record each year.” She failed to mention that it is also not sustainable to have sales continue to rise double-digits in a market that is already considered “overvalued.”