A new, expansive survey by the University of Florida has nothing but positive predictions for Florida's housing market.

The Survey of Emerging Market Conditions for 2012′s first quarter was nothing but positive, showing many good signs for Florida’s real estate market.

Conducted by the Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies in the Warrington College of Business Administration from the University of Florida, the survey sampled 189 participants, making it the most extensive survey of its kind of Florida’s real estate professionals.

Economically, the survey found Florida’s market showing substantial signs of growth. In the first quarter alone, the unemployment rate dropped by nearly a full percentage point, and the state has added 66,000 jobs to the workforce. That job growth was also widespread, with unemployment falling in each of the economy’s major markets over the quarter.

That economic news, the survey continued, has positively impacted Florida’s real estate markets. Expectations of occupancy and rental levels improved in the quarter for every property type, and even banks became more active in the capital markets

“The lenders sentiment reached its highest level since the first quarter of 2007, reflecting an improving lending environment,” the survey stated. “The improving economic conditions are having a positive effect on property fundamentals. Respondents indicate that occupancy and rents are improving in almost every asset class.”

The results for the single-family market were similarly optimistic, as the outlook for the market reached a survey high in the quarter. Low inventory levels, the survey found, has been a boon for demand, and the limited supply of quality homes in or near urban environments has been in particularly high demand.

Just yesterday, in fact, we reported on this phenomenon, with comments from Nancy Iliffe, a Realtor at Shelton and Stewart Realtors in South Miami.

“In the month of May, I’ve had three closings,” Iliffe said. “All three went under contract in less than a week.”

The survey was clear, though, that builders too have responded to that lower supply, and have begun building smaller properties with more competitive prices. However, low prices will not be a common feature of the market. As more positive migration occurs in Florida and the job markets respond accordingly, positive pressure will be applied to prices and inflation will occur (something that’s already in the works, in fact).

And even the outlook for residential absorption, long the bane for Florida’s housing market, has improved. The outlook rose to the highest level in the history of the survey, with most respondents believing that absorptions would increase during the second quarter. Such is that belief, in fact, that builders are now purchasing low-priced lots and are beginning developments of smaller, more competitively-priced homes

At every stage, it appeared the market reflected the sentiment expressed earlier this week by Jodi Macken of Macken Realty: “We believe very strongly the recovery is here to stay.”

Midtown Miami recently closed a $1.4 million penthouse.

Luxury condo development Midtown Miami’s sales continue to tower to new heights as the community sees its biggest transaction to date.

The development explained in a press release that they closed on a $1.4 million transaction for one of its 10 luxury penthouses.

The all-cash transaction buys the future owners a 3,988 square-foot penthouse featuring, “2,000 square feet of terraces, 22-foot ceilings with with floor-to-ceiling windows and top-of-the-line stainless steel appliances,” according to the press release.

And because the buyers went with an all-cash transaction, Midtown Miami Sales Director David Staples, explained that the closing process only took three weeks.

Since the sale, Staples explained that they saw an increase in buyer interest, commenting that they sold eight penthouses in two weeks, and that their development has only one penthouse left up for sale.

The recent transaction for Midtown reflects a growing nationwide trend as listing prices continues to stabilize amidst the rocky economy, and as consumer confidence continues to recover.

In fact, Realtor.com released a report showcasing the city of Miami in the number two spot among markets with the largest list price increases, with a 22.27 percent increase year over year.

Edgardo Defortuna, president and CEO of Fortune International, the firm that closed the sale at Midtown Miami, commented on this trend.

“There is increased confidence in the Miami market as buyers take advantage of great value in purchasing a condo in a thriving neighborhood like Midtown Miami,” said Edgardo.

But the growing development isn’t the only one that’s seen an increased interest amongst buyers looking to move into the area.

Fellow luxury condo development, Paramount Bay, has also seen a steady increase in growth, stating that they’ve sold over 75 percent of their units since October 2011, “registering more than $190 million in sales,” according to an issued press release.

Interest rates hit historical levels yet again last week, with the 30-year FRM hitting 3.79 percent.

Freddie Mac yesterday released the latest results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey, and it found what by now has become common – that average fixed mortgage rates hit record lows last week.

The 30-year FRM averaged just 3.79 for the week ending May 17, a four basis point decline from the 3.83 percent of the week prior and a substantial drop from the 4.61 percent from last year.

Emilio Palomo, a Realtor with Riteway Properties and the Miami chair of the Master Brokers Forum, an organization of South Florida’s top real estate professionals, said the low rates have been unprecedented.

“I would never have imagined rates would have been lower than 6 percent in my lifetime,” Palomo said, who has been selling real estate since the ’70s. “I was selling homes when Carter was president, and rates were 18 percent.”

“I think it’s great,” Palomo continued, adding the incredible reach that real estate transactions have. Not only, he explained, does an agent profit from the commissions of a home sale – the inspector and appraiser are also provided work; the bank is provided business on the loan, as is the loan officer that processes it; new appliances, kitchenware, furniture and other household items are purchased to furnish the home – suddenly, nearly ever sector of the economy has been impacted by the transaction.

The 3.79 rate, though, is not nearly the lowest Palomo has seen. He is currently refinancing his property, and he qualified for a 5-year FRM at 2.5 percent.

“It’s unbelievable,” he said.

Frank Nothaft, the vice president and chief economist of Freddie Mac, said economic factors oversees played a big part in the declining rates, which occurred despite positive economic news at home.

“The European debt crisis overshadowed improving economic indicators for the U.S. and allowed Treasury bond yields and fixed mortgage rates to ease for another week,” Nothaft said. “For instance, industrial production rose 1.1 percent in April – the largest gain since December 2010 – and consumer sentiment in May rose to its highest reading since January 2008, according to the University of Michigan.”

The 15-year FRM averaged 3.04 percent, down just one basis point from the week before but 75 basis points from last year, when it averaged 3.80 percent. The 5-year ARM, by comparison, averaged 2.83 percent, up by two basis points from the week before but still down 67 basis points from last year. The 1-year ARM, at 2.78 percent, was up by five basis points but down 27 from last year.

Fannie Mae re-upped its predictions for a positive 2012 in its latest economic report.

Fannie Mae bolstered its predictions for the U.S. housing market in its report from the latest Economic & Strategic Research Group.

Housing, the report stated, showed considerable promise in the first quarter of 2012, growing at a rate that “substantially” outpaces that of 2011.

Doug Duncan, the chief economist for Fannie, said that even though growth may slow somewhat in the coming weeks, the GSE still feels confident going forward.

“Despite the loss of momentum as we move through the spring months, we expect that home sales will rise slightly more than 7 percent during 2012,” Duncan said. “Our outlook is bolstered by improvements in consumer sentiment seen in our National Housing Survey results, which show that consumer views of housing market conditions have become more supportive of home purchases and their outlook on home prices.”

That outlook, Duncan continued, has been particularly noteworthy for sellers.

“Interestingly, we’re seeing a pick up from depressed levels in the ‘good time to sell’ category, suggesting rising optimism about the housing market,” he said.

The slowdown, the report stated, may be a side effect of the unseasonably warm winter, which may have unnaturally boosted economic activity at a time of historical stagnation. But still, though economic growth in the first quarter of 2012 decreased from 3.0 percent in 2011′s fourth quarter to 2.2 percent, it was still stronger than 2011′s first quarter and better balanced, when upside and downside risks are considered.

The report predicted that growth will remain consist with the first quarter through the rest of the year.

“For all of 2012, we expect growth to come in at 2.3 percent—little changed from the view we have held since the beginning of the year,” it stated.

Forecasts for the housing market, though, appear very positive. For housing starts, Fannie expects the market to grow from the 687,000 of 2012′s first quarter to 775,000 by the end of the year. Single-family starts, which will average out at 498,000 for the year, will be 15.7 percent higher than in 2011. The real growth, though, will be in 2013, when Fannie predicts starts will grow to 790,000 in the first quarter, 842,000 in the second, 910,000 in the third and finally finish the year at 990,000, when construction will be fully back in action.

Data on sales was similarly encouraging. New single-family home sales are expected to grow from the 337,000 in 2012′s first quarter to 353,000 in the fourth quarter, and through 2013, they will grow to 378,000, then 407,000, then 443,000 and then finally at 492,000. Existing-home sales, by comparison, will finish 2012 at 4.552 million, or, 6.9 percent over 2011.

With a free, large-scale homebuyer workshop at the Miami Airport Convention Center (MACC) from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m., the program will commence in Miami on June 1 and 2.  Miami is the sixth city to launch the Neighborhood LIFT program along with Atlanta, Houston, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Phoenix.

The program was established to aid communities overcome the two-fold challenge of high inventories of unsold homes while providing assistance to prospective buyers. In an effort to help fund hundreds of residents to become homeowners in four cities, including Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville, Wells Fargo is committing $30 million to the state of Florida.

The four participating cities in Florida were chosen based on their high concentration of homeowners, foreclosures, delinquencies and overall housing inventory.

“Florida was one of the states hardest hit by the housing crisis,” said Shelley Freeman, Wells Fargo’s Florida regional president. “Today, despite low home prices and historically low interest rates, many Floridians are still unable to purchase a home because they simply cannot afford the down payment. Through Neighborhood LIFT, Wells Fargo is helping to address this issue by providing the down payment assistance needed to help get people into homes.”

In Miami, the program consist of a five-year goal of $300 million in mortgage purchase loans by Wells Fargo and a $9 million investment in down payment assistance grants. It also features homebuyer support programs to aid consumers achieve successful, sustainable home ownership. Wells Fargo will collaborate with the city of Miami, the non-profit organization of NeighborhoodWorks America and Neighborhood Housing Services of South Florida, a local Miami affiliate, to execute the program.

“The downturn in the economy has created challenges for many of our Miami citizens to become homeowners,” said city of Miami Mayor Tomás Regalado. “We are looking forward to collaborating with Wells Fargo, NeighborWorks America, and Neighborhood Housing Services of South Florida on this important sustainable housing effort. It’s time to get our housing market moving again.”

The initiative for Florida Neighborhood LIFT also includes commitments of $7 million in Tampa with a homebuyer event on June 22-23; $7 million in Orlando with a homebuyer event on June 13-14; and $7 million in Jacksonville with a homebuyer event on June 27-28.

The Neighborhood LIFT event in Miami on June 1-2 is for anyone who is interested in purchasing and residing in a home in Miami.  There is a down payment assistance of up to $15,000 for those who qualify, buy and live in Miami. In order to qualify for down payment assistance, applicants must meet the following criteria annual income not exceeding 120 percent of the area median income; completion of an eight-hour homebuyer education session with the approved NeighborWorks America affiliate; a commitment to stay in the home for five years; and qualifications for a first mortgage on the property.

Potential homebuyers can find out if they qualify for the down payment assistance program for a mortgage and reserve funds for 60-days with or without intended property at the event. They also can obtain pre-approval for a mortgage and if they have credit issues they can sign-up for free counseling.

In addition, prospective homebuyers may come by the Wells Fargo Affordable Home Tour viewing center to preview the amenities and prices of about 100 available homes for sale in each city.  They can board a tour bus for a free ride to tour the homes.  The bus tours will leave from noon to 5 p.m. every day to the neighborhoods, and self-directed tours are encouraged too.

“This is a tremendous commitment by Wells Fargo to support homeowners and communities,” said Eileen Fitzgerald, chief executive officer of NeighborWorks America, the national non-profit collaborating with Wells Fargo on Neighborhood LIFT. “This is the kind of public-private collaboration that can help communities tackle difficult challenges and families realize their goal of sustainable home ownership.”

Foreclosure activity was down nationally, but result varied considerably across the nation's local markets.

Foreclosure filings, which encompass default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions, were the lowest in April in five years, according to the latest data from RealtyTrac.

The 188,780 filings for April were a 5 percent decline from March and a 14 percent drop from April 2011. Overall, one in every 698 U.S. housing units had a foreclosure filing in the month.

Brandon Moore, the CEO of RealtyTrac, said the declines may be deceptive, given the local nature of foreclosure markets.

“Rising foreclosure activity in many state and  local markets in April was masked at the national level by sizable decreases in  hard-hit foreclosure states like California, Arizona and Nevada,” Moore said. “Those three states, and several other non-judicial foreclosure states like them, more efficiently processed foreclosures last  year, resulting in fewer catch-up foreclosures this year.”

Indeed, the judicial/non-judicial divide has become increasingly marked, as foreclosure inventories continue to linger in certain markets. Just last week, Foreclosure-Response released its own foreclosure data with particular emphasis on the distinction.

In RealtyTrac’s data, foreclosure activity in the 26 judicial states was down 3 percent from March to April but up 15 percent from April 2011, with monthly activity falling in 14 of the states and yearly activity increasing in 15.

For Miami, there were 9,031 foreclosure filings in April, which represents 1 in every 273 units and is the second highest rate in the country. Though the filings were 9.18 percent lower than in March, they were 38.43 percent higher from last April, and Ada Clavijo, the office manager of Macken Realty, said she has observed a definite increase in activity from her position.

As manager, Clavijo processes all foreclosure transactions once buyers are found for the properties, and she said across the Miami area, she’s seeing an increase in activity.

“We’ve seen foreclosures all over,” she said. “Fort Lauderdale, especially more of Miami Beach.”

Miami Beach, Clavijo continued, has been particularly interesting. For some time, the office saw little inventory from the area, but now, many of the investor-purchased properties from the boom years are entering the market – and are promptly being purchased by other investors. Clavijo said that between Argentina, Venezuela and Israel, foreign investors are comprising a huge chunk of the office’s foreclosure transactions (Israel alone has accounted for 25 percent of the transactions).

A big cause of the uptick, Clavijo said, was the mortgage settlement, which freed up many banks to work through their foreclosure inventory with much more fluidity. Evictions, which used to take more than 60 days, now take no more than 30 days, and inventory is moving so freely that Macken Realty has just one property on hold, a dramatic change from before, when 75 percent of the foreclosure inventory was on hold by banks.

Foreclosure starts were similarly local-driven. Though nationally, starts were down 4 percent from march and 2 percent from April 2011, 26 states posted monthly increases and 27 year-over-year increases. States with the biggest annual  increases in foreclosure starts included New Jersey (180 percent), Utah (179  percent), Indiana (49 percent), Pennsylvania (44 percent), Florida (43  percent) and Michigan (42 percent).

Carlos Garcia and Iain Montford are the newest agents at ONE Sotheby's.

Miami based agency ONE Sotheby’s International Realty has welcomed real estate duo Iain Montford and Carlos Garcia. The duo will work out of ONE Sotheby’s South of Fifth location, and will specialize in the Miami Beach, downtown Miami and Sunny Isles area.

Both Montford and Garcia have extensive years of real estate experience between them. The duo not only specializes in properties in South Florida, but Garcia also has experience as a top producer in Los Angeles.

Montford, a native of the United Kingdom, is an honors graduate of The Royal Academy of Music-London and Kings College. Montford specializes in residential sales and luxury rentals, and is also the founder and creative director of the international investment and construction group, Inchian Properties. Garcia, a native of Venezuela, is a graduate from Simon Bolivar University and Wright State University, where he majored in Industrial Engineering.

Beth Butler, president of ONE Sotheby’s International Realty, is excited about the addition to the firm’s team, specifically because of their bi-coastal reach.

“With their network extending to the West Coast, I know they will bring clients from across the United States to South Florida,” she said.

Housing inventory has continued to drop in 2012, with year-over-year declines in May at 21 percent.

Inventory levels in the U.S. housing market are down 21 percent from last May, according to the newest statistics from Pro Teck Valuation Services.

A real estate valuation firm based in Waltham, Mass., Pro Teck said many of the most depressed local markets in the nation have been seeing increased home sales accompany the falling inventories.

Michael Sklarz, principal of collateral analytics for HomeValueForecast.com, singled out Michigan and Illinois in a HousingWire piece, saying that those states are defying their reputations as “foreclosure-riddled states” and have been making substantial strides in reducing their inventories.

Tom O’Grady, the president and CEO of the firm, said  that the inventory/sales relationship is a significant one.

“One of the most important developments in the past year for the residential real estate market has been the significant decline in the inventory of homes for sale,” he said. ”Nationally, the number of homes currently listed are down 21 percent from a year ago.”

Nancy Iliffe, a Realtor at Shelton and Stewart Realtors in South Miami and member of the Master Brokers Forum, said the declining inventories in Miami (they’re down more than 40 percent from last year) have created a huge shift in demand.

“In the month of May, I’ve had three closings,” Iliffe said. “All three went under contract in less than a week.”

In the face of such demand, Iliffe said it’s imperative that not only her clients be educated of the buying process, but that agents be checking the MLS constantly so they are effectively aware of the latest homes for sale.

Prices, though, have yet to catch up. Iliffe added there has been a major price correction in the Miami area, and sellers are finally beginning to wake up to that fact.

“That has been a long time coming, that mentality,” she said. And now, with homes priced accordingly (aka low with the rest of the market), that is stimulating demand even further.

Interpretations differ on how many months supply represent a healthy real estate market, but the consensus is generally around five to six months. In its analysis, Pro Teck stated that five months or less indicates a strong market, and the U.S. market’s current level of 6.3 months is its lowest level in six years.

The Residential/CRE Investor app allows for numerous approaches to track investing.

Residential/CRE Investor, a newly-released app for the iPhone, iPad and iPod touch, is a sophisticated yet user-friendly financial model for evaluating single-family, multifamily and commercial real estate investments

George Mathew, the app’s creator, said he wanted to create a program that effectively compared financial returns from a number of different products.

“I needed a model that compares the potential returns of different investment properties with a logic that is consistent with how analysts evaluate other investment options, including equities and corporate bonds,” Mathew explained.

In addition to its aforementioned features, the app also structures mortgage financing and determines pricing based on valuation metrics. For all potential investments, the app utilizes a Financing Likelihood Indicator that allows users to adjust an offer price based on a target internal rate of return (IRR) or projected capitalization rate.

Rather than building customized spreadsheets or working with costly desktop software packages, users are able to input property data and understand potential returns on a mobile device with an intuitive user interface, and users can also generate cash flow projections with as few as two inputs or with hundreds, making this financial model as simple or complex as a user prefers. The cash flow projections can then help determine the viability of potential financing structures and investment returns.

The app allows for unlimited properties, tenant units, expense items and revenue items, and each revenue and expense item’s growth can be generalized or customized by year. Other features include:

• Common building expenses can be shared with specific tenants.
• Capital expenditures can be projected by year and by tenant.
• Projected sale value can be based on price appreciation, capitalization rate, or even a discount rate with perpetual growth formula.
• Income taxes, including the tax benefits associated with building depreciation, can also be projected.
• Users can also e-mail property investment reports directly from their own e-mail outbox.

A full App Guide and further information is available at http://CRE-Owner.com.

Housing starts rose in April by double-digit sums from the year before.

Housing starts for privately-owned homes rose by nearly 30 percent year-over-year in April, perhaps the strongest sign yet of a recovery in residential construction.

According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, starts were up 2.6 percent from March to April and 29.9 percent from April 2011 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 717,000.

Single-family housing starts were also positive, rising 2.3 percent from March to a rate of 492,000.

The Census Bureau also reported on housing completions and building permits in its data.

For privately-owned housing completions, April’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of 651,000 was a 10.0 percent increase from March and a 20.1 percent increase from April 2011; in the single-family market, the 489,000 rate of completions was an even more impressive 11.4 percent rise from March.

Building permits were the one area that did not show uniform increases, but yearly, they still posted significant increases. From March to April, the rate of 715,000 was a 7.0 percent drop, but compared to April 2011, the rate is 23.7 percent higher. For single-family authorizations, the rate of 475,000 was a 1.9 percent increase from March.

In a blog entry on the data, Calculated Risk’s Bill McBride framed the increases in a historical light.

“[T]otal housing starts have been increasing lately after moving sideways for about two years and a half years,” he wrote. “Total starts are up 50 percent from the bottom, and single family starts are up 39 percent from the low. This was above expectations of 690,000 starts in April, and was especially strong given the upward revisions to prior months. The housing recovery continues. “